Rollin' Like Sisyphus

The Only Difference Between A Sunrise And A Sunset Is Context, Plus Playoff Picks!

Posted in Life's A Gamble by Huckleberry on January 8, 2014

NE

I take back every hopeful, good-naturedly optimistic thing I ever said about 2014.
Fuck this year.
51 weeks to go!
Last week’s picks went well, my Super Chargers keep charging on with House Money, and the KC v IND game made me think the whole goddamn thing is rigged.
Allow me to explain.
All week, Vegas had the line as IND -2.5, meaning to bet on Indy and win, the Colts would have to win by a field goal or more. Saturday morning, the sharps in Vegas shaded the line down to IND -1, meaning to bet on Indy and win, the Colts needed to win by 2 points or more; to bet on the Chiefs, they would have to lose outright. Altering the line from a half-point to a full point gives Vegas an out for a push – meaning if Indy wins by a single point, all bets are wiped out, but the House gets to keep your money, if you placed a bet on gameday, which, surprise surprise, most gamblers did.
The final score?
IND 45, KC 44, with the Colts scoring 28 points in 28 minutes for an “epic” come-from-behind win.
The two usual reasons for such a late and cautious swing in a gambling line is major injury or weather. And weather was a huge, scary factor this weekend, the only problem is that Indy plays under a dome.
The other three playoff hosts don’t.
Is it entirely possible that, fearing the highly unpredictable chaos of snow storms on three highly-bet football games, that the sharps shaded the line and rigged the outcome of the easiest game to control as a hedge against climate-born disaster?
You bet.
At any rate, *if I gambled* I would have had a great weekend.
The other thing I’m going to add to the results is units – NOT MONEY – but units to gauge confidence in spread picks.
I’ll use a 0-4 unit scale.
0 Units means I have no confidence in the pick, AND IF I GAMBLED, I would not bet on the particular game.
1 Unit means I have marginal confidence in the game, AND IF I GAMBLED, I would not bet much on the outcome.
2 Units means I have decent confidence in the pick, AND IF I GAMBLED, I would consider laying decent money on it.
3 Units means I am confident in the pick, AND IF I GAMBLED, I would absolutely put a healthy amount of money on the outcome.
4 Units means I consider it a lock, AND IF I GAMBLED, I would put too much money on the outcome.

WILDCARD WEEKEND RESULTS

STRAIGHT UP: 4-0

@IND v KC: IND
@PHI v NO: NO
@CIN v SD: SD
@GB v SF: SF

AGAINST THE SPREAD: 3-1

@IND v KC: IND -2.5
@PHI v NO: NO +2.5
@CIN v SD: SD +7
@GB v SF: SF -2.5

DIVISIONAL ROUND

STRAIGHT UP

@SEA v NO: SEA
@NE v IND: NE
@CAR v SF: CAR
@DEN v SD: SD

AGAINST THE SPREAD

@SEA v NO: SEA -8
2 Units
@NE v IND: IND +7.5
1 Unit
@CAR v SF: CAR +2
2 Units
@DEN v SD: SD +10
3 Units

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